Accurate View of Reality (AVR)

AVR (What)

An Accurate View of Reality (AVR) is a comprehensive understanding of the world that aligns closely with facts and observations; that is, it aligns with the way things are.

In essence, having an AVR means seeing the world as it is, rather than as one might wish it to be.

An AVR is grounded in a rigorous and honest assessment of available information. However, an AVR is not static. Instead, it evolves as new evidence becomes available.

Examples of AVR

An AVR typically refers to a particular subject. Here are some examples:

  1. An accurate view of global warming, based on the best available science and its validation.

  2. An accurate view of winemaking, grounded in an understanding of best practices, fermentation processes, and regional variations.

  3. An accurate view of optics (a subject within physics), based on an understanding of fundamental concepts and theories as they have evolved over the past several centuries.

  4. An accurate view of a crime and who is most likely responsible that is based on a comprehensive examination of the evidence while keeping an open mind.

AVR (Why)

  1. Make the best decisions.

  2. Who wants to have an inaccurate view?

  3. Useful for many things: learning, problem-solving, communication, and so on.

  4. When competing groups (e.g., political parties, warring countries, warring spouses) have different views of reality, this makes collaboration and conflict resolution much harder.

AVR (How)

Principles

  1. An AVR exists. It can be found. It is worth finding. There is one AVR, not several (by definition).

  2. An AVR is based on probability. It can and will change based on new evidence. At any moment in time, we make choices that align with what is most likely true.

  3. Intellectual humility: This refers to skepticism of self and openness to ideas of others, especially those you violently disagree with. This trait is the basis of an AVR.

  4. Certitude (unwavering confidence of being right) is the polar opposite of intellectual humility.

Framework (The 5 Part Framework)

  1. Accurate Sources (Secondary Research) – For secondary research, rely on high-quality, well-vetted sources.

  2. Accurate Methods (Primary Research) – For primary research, rely on sound, well-vetted methodologies.

  3. Triangulation (Multiple Checks) – Verifying information through multiple independent sources and checks. Rely on coherence.

  4. Skepticism of Self (Avoiding Cargo Cult Thinking) – Be the most skeptical of your own beliefs. Bend over backwards to avoid making mistakes. Recognize personal biases. Question assumptions. Avoid blind adherence to beliefs, especially those that cannot be falsified or justified.

  5. Openness to Other Ideas – Considering alternative viewpoints, updating beliefs based on new evidence, and being willing to change one’s mind when warranted.

Tips

  1. I rarely read information. Instead I skim it and extract the diamonds. I call this “panning for gold,” because it is like sorting through a pile of gravel and finding the gold nuggets.

  2. One can and should assemble a list of great sources for secondary research and a list of great methods for primary research.

  3. When you are seeking information, strive for a high positive payoff. A payoff refers to the net rewards minus the drawbacks taken holistically.

Relationships

Primary Research

This involves getting information by direct means such as observations, experiments, calculations, math models, surveys, investigative journalism, and such.

Secondary Research

This involves getting information from other people and from products created by other people: books, websites, videos, journal articles, and such.

Cargo Cult Science

This term, coined by Nobel prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman, refers to getting information by methods that look like they are intellectually rigorous, but they are missing the essential ingredient which is a fundamental commitment to uncovering truth.